Four big banks personal housing loans ten years upgrade, housing prices can not fall?

2022-05-06 0 By

“Urban policies will promote a virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry,” the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBRC) said in 2022.Compared with the past, there is a similarity, but also a difference.The similarity lies in the continuation of the idea of “implementing policies according to the city”, while the difference lies in the explicit proposal of “virtuous circle”.The shift is in line with previous efforts by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the central bank and the National Development and Reform Commission to re-establish the property market as a pillar of economic development this year.The background of “promoting a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry” is directly related to the current performance of the real estate market. In 2021, the sales area of commercial housing was 1,794.33 million square meters, an increase of 1.9% over the previous year.This is 4.6 percent higher than 2019, and the two-year average is 2.3 percent.There is a certain gap with the original expected level.Of course, the premise of “promoting a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry” remains unchanged, that is, housing is not speculation.According to the requirements put forward at the WORKING meeting of THE China Banking And Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBRC) in 2022, the specific requirements are: to prevent and defuse financial risks.We will continue to prudently handle risks in the financial sector in accordance with the basic principle of “stabilizing the overall situation, making overall planning and coordination, adopting differentiated policies, and taking targeted measures to defuse the bomb”, and firmly guard against systemic financial risks.We will consolidate the responsibilities of all parties and move forward in an orderly manner in dealing with high-risk financial institutions.We will properly respond to the rebound of non-performing assets.We will adhere to the position that houses are for living in, not for speculation. We will continue to improve the long-term mechanism for stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, and adopt urban policies to promote a virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.Pursuing the idea of “promoting a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry”, we found some data about personal mortgage loans. From the changes in the loan ratio of agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Construction Bank of China in the past 10 years, we can feel the importance of real estate to the economy and the importance of family.In particular, the stability of house prices is important to households.According to the annual reports of the four major banks compiled by Sumashima, the loans have changed over the past 10 years. Personal housing loans have rapidly become the main force of banks, and the rapid growth still surprises me a little.In 2008, industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s manufacturing sector took the leading position with 764.5 billion yuan in loans, while personal housing loans ranked third with 643.5 billion yuan.Ten years later, in 2017, the personal housing loan of ICBC rose to the leading position, reaching 3,935.8 billion yuan, while the manufacturing industry, which ranked first in the previous decade, fell to the third place, only 149.2 billion yuan.In 2008, agricultural Bank of China’s manufacturing sector also took the leading position in the category of loans, with a total loan of 788 billion yuan, while personal housing loans ranked third with 381.2 billion yuan.Ten years later, in 2017, personal housing loans of Agricultural Bank of China also rose to the leading position, reaching 3.1311 billion yuan, while the manufacturing industry, which had been in the first place in the previous decade, fell to the second place, only 1241.5 billion yuan.In 2008, the manufacturing sector took the leading position with 963.2 billion yuan, while personal housing loans took the second place with 814.7 billion yuan.Ten years later, in 2017, personal housing loans in the category of bank of China also rose to the leading position, reaching 3,059.8 billion yuan, while the manufacturing industry, which had been in the first place in the previous decade, fell to the second place, only 1,685 billion yuan.China Construction Bank, one of the big four banks, is no exception.In 2008, the manufacturing sector took the leading position with 733.3 billion yuan in loans, while personal housing loans took the second place with 727.8 billion yuan.Ten years later, in 2017, personal housing loans of CCB also rose to the leading position, reaching 4,210.5 billion yuan, while the manufacturing industry, which ranked first in the previous decade, fell to the third place, only 1,178.4 billion yuan.The aggregate data for the big four banks is basically indistinguishable from changes in loan categories at individual banks.In 2008, among the four major banks’ loan categories, manufacturing ranked the leading position with 3,031.1 billion yuan, while personal housing loan ranked the second place with 2,269.1 billion yuan.Ten years later, in 2017, personal housing loans were also firmly in the top position in the category of loans by the big four banks, reaching 14.337.1 trillion yuan, 2.6 times that of manufacturing (5.514 trillion yuan) in second place.As for the data after 2017, you can take some time to take a look at the annual reports of the four banks, which have a relatively clear record.Speaking of here, can also incidentally explain why the bank plate market net ratio is so low.Why is it that banks are trading below their net assets and their profits are good, but their stock prices are not going up.The importance of personal housing loans to the bank has been fully reflected in the above ten years of change data, needless to say.Overall, it’s a chilling number to say the least, but I don’t think it’s quite that dramatic, but it’s a little shocking.Perhaps the figures for 2021 will be even more exaggerated. Let’s wait and see the annual reports of the big four banks.However, look at this situation, housing prices really can not fall.