Today, institutions have seen more!Tomorrow, we need the backup money in place?
The 7-day Long Spring Festival holiday comes to an end today, and a-share market will officially open tomorrow. In fact, everyone is quite expecting how the market will go. Judging from the performance of the peripheral markets, THE US stock market did not fall sharply, but Hong Kong stock surged last Friday, which is bound to encourage the A-share market.From a domestic institutional point of view, a little looking at many phenomenon, such as high essence securities chief economist said, in the current level of interest rates, policy orientation and economic prospects, and the expansion of credit worries and policy environment uncertainty exists, can further confirm the present market has been in a low position,Its main logic before the panic of A shares is mainly the impact of interest rate hikes in peripheral markets, and with the continued rebound of the US stock market, the feeling of this pressure is weakening, which is bad for A shares in the elimination.Cicc next year on the A-share market neutral bias positive view, and feel that there is no danger, the opportunity is greater than the risk.Haitong securities strategy is the current probability is not a bear market, but in the cattle dressing year, is also shock city.More positive is the well-known 10 billion private equity assets of The latest strategy of Liang Hong believes that has been firmly added positions, it is time to turn defense for attack.Probably has a lot of people don’t quite understand, why institutional view emerged overnight for such a big change, first time seems to be relatively pessimistic, tomorrow want to open the view changed, still need to be able to understand on this point, first when the fed raising interest rates expected really scared people, and after a lunar New Year holiday, U.S. stocks there performance was found to be normal,Means that the federal reserve to raise interest rates big probability less pessimistic than we expected, plus the a-share itself before panic, is wrong to kill some space, so after repair was taken for granted, I think this is A major cause of institutions have to see more, for these can go to, just A shares at the bottom of the forming process is complex, the probability of rose overnight is not very big,It’s time to keep the patience building at the bottom of the market.Tomorrow, we need the backup money in place?For market fall first, negative is on the one hand, on the market the most objective should be to support money, do you want to know what feeling in January public funds redemption seems greater than the net purchase, to say the market’s biggest structure of public funds to buy is not positive, but because of redemptions caused the market funds out of balance, it is equivalent to a vicious cycle for the market,So falling stock market inertia is very normal, see from the related data, in January 2022, the new public funds 148, what is the size of the raised 118.8 billion yuan, but feel as though the money did not affect the market, this is because the whole environment more bad, the new fund essence is also in an observation period, with the elimination of negative during the Spring Festival,Then after the Spring Festival, the market stabilizes year by year, AND I estimate that the probability of newly issued funds entering the market is large, which is an important backup force for the market.In December and January this year, the public offering fund net worth fell more, it greatly influenced the subscription of the base civilian interest, also form a detail factors, panic if the public offering fund redemptions slow, and gradually a new fund to enter, continue to issue new funds in February, so market funds, there is no previous so nervous,The key is to change the expectation of funds in the field, that the new money is in a steady stream, so the base people holding the old fund will not simply redeem, will have a positive impact on the rational operation of public funds.It can be said that I have always felt that the Interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has been taken as an issue and the US stock market has great risks. However, judging from the capital trend of the US stock market, it seems that our worries are unnecessary. The US stock market may reach a new high within a few days after the Holiday.And the more this time tends to breed a relatively large level of the uptrend, every surge in history has been the same.Disclaimer: the content of the article is for reference only, does not constitute any operational advice or tips, the stock market has a risk, investment please be cautious!