Pork wholesale price 20.87 yuan a kilogram, pig capacity is imperative

2022-05-25 0 By

Since the second half of last year, pig and pork prices have fallen all the way, industry insiders said overcapacity, must immediately cut capacity, but still “loud thunder, small rain”, do not want to eliminate the old sows too much, so the current pig price “secondary warning”.2022 May be the year of pig production capacity, farms should be careful to fill fences, pig prices have not hit bottom, or there are “double dip” market.In the face of depressed pig prices, farms must choose to cut production capacity, production capacity does not fall, pig prices are difficult to rebound.It is already the slow season for pork consumption, which may last until the end of August, and the Dragon Boat Festival may stabilize for some time.Every year after the Spring Festival, pork consumption enters the off-season and pork prices return to normal.But this year pork prices did not rise before the Spring Festival, and they fell, only rising a little between the day before the Spring Festival and the fourth day of the first lunar month.But then it has been falling. From the consumer side, the price of pork will continue to fall. No one will consume it, so it can only be sold at a reduced price.Although the country issued a “pig grain ratio of second-level warning,” but “warning” is a warning, the country will not start the first half of the “purchase and storage”, nor can intervene in the fall of pig prices.In the face of the decline, large-scale farms are also losing money, thanks to more, do not raise not to lose, so, the farms this year is better to choose to reduce capacity.In the first half of the farm supplement column need to be cautious, can not blindly expand the scale of breeding, to timely stop loss, reduce the risk.The current pig price has fallen below 7.00 yuan per catty, this is also market adjustment, normal market, any commodity has peak, also have trough, we farmers need not be pessimistic.Or to meet the hog price peak time to make full preparations, eliminated backward production capacity, supply and demand balance, pig prices naturally rebounded.Second, corn prices are still running at a high level, feed prices are high, can only choose to cultivate local varieties of pig corn prices are relatively stable, but still running at a high level, the price of 1.35 yuan a catty is difficult to shake, so feed prices are still high.This year, pig production capacity may be cut in the first half of the year, to make money in the second half of the year, pig production capacity has declined, to excess feed, feed prices can fall, this is a process, may be a “strong man broken wrist”, need courage, otherwise, it is difficult to get out of the pig price drop “pig cycle”.In 2021, pork output reached 52.96 million tons, up 28.8 percent year-on-year and close to the historical normal level.Annual breeding sow stock 4329 million, according to a sow 2.5 litter/year calculation, a sow annual output of 30 piglets, this year if not to capacity, piglets as high as 1.2 billion, has been a serious surplus, China’s highest slaughter 700 million, 1.2 billion piglets fat, has been more than twice as much, how to consume?How can prices rebound?So urgent matter of the moment or to go to capacity, the old sow out of half, in order to have pig price rebound!Third, pork supply is abundant, the bottom may appear in June, but the price may still hover at the cost price this year pig grain ratio at 5.57:1, the first half of the hog price continues to explore the bottom line.Even if the production capacity, the state started to buy storage, this year pig prices are difficult to usher in the “inflection point”.China’s large-scale pig production rate accounted for 60%, last year in addition to mu Yuan stock profit, other listed companies have suffered losses.The capital market is very hot this year, the decline of pork price is the best time to build positions, all stocks rose against the market, pig price may have a seasonal rise at the end of the year, but pig price and meat price sustained rebound may be in the first half of 2023.Hog prices remain on the cost line for the second half of the year.With excess capacity, the price of piglets will definitely fall, which will reduce the cost to some extent, and if alternatives can be found in feed, the cost of raising pigs will fall a bit.But throughout this year pig prices, farms or to reduce production capacity, not full column breeding, moderate supplement column, do not expand feeding, scale farms should also be benign competition, can not grab territory, seize market share, disorderly expansion.