In some cities, it will be too late

2022-06-19 0 By

Today is seventh day, the first day of work.I think, I still break before more “property market forecast” write complete.Because, some cities can no longer wait, the market has gone up.Step01, first-tier cities in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the habitual ranking, but also happens to be the ranking of 2022 housing market heat.Right!The first prediction: 2022 first-tier city property market heat ranking is Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen.Let’s start with Beijing.– 2021 Indian Summer;– Transactions of second-hand homes reached 190,000 units;– The turnover of new houses is over 70,000, while the supply is less than 60,000. The turnover is no problem. The record high in the past five years.Why is that?Beijing’s rich educational and job resources are strong drivers — strong economic data and steady growth of high-level talent.Its GDP has crossed the threshold of 4 trillion yuan, and the disposable income of residents, together with Shanghai, ranks first in China.What city can defy this?Forecast 2022 Beijing real estate market in the first half of the year will appear a small climax.Just need gens can start as early as possible, to June, July need to be careful, to avoid due to regulation, buy in the high or appear loan card phenomenon.Look at Shanghai.Shanghai, like Beijing, saw a tailwind at the end of the year.The second-hand housing market has risen for 4 consecutive months since September 2021.In the middle of January 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand houses has exceeded 15,000 in more than ten days.If there is no policy increase, predicted transaction momentum will maintain the “up posture” up posture is ~ – magic Shanghai second-hand housing turnover will be completed five consecutive up posture to see the market, see second-hand trading volume.If the trading volume keeps rising for more than three months in a row, then “marry brother” will certainly rise.– If the policy is not increased in 2022, it is predicted that Shanghai will not only have Indian Summer, but also the property market will be booming. This is the iron law, don’t you believe it?Let me show you the data ~ — Shanghai second-hand housing inventory, down for 4 consecutive weeks;– The current reduction rate of 18,000 sets/month, the current listed inventory of 13,000 sets, this pace, is naked demand ah ~ supply and demand force the market, the market will have a sense of urgency.Can’t buy, can’t grab the mood will increase.Let me remind you of the data for 2021: — Shanghai’s new home supply reached 89,000, the highest in five years.When you think Shanghai will inventory backlog, magic part of the project to rely on rob, to buy ah in 2021 Shanghai new house turnover reached 93,000 sets, is also the highest turnover in the past five years.– 89,000 sets of supply — 93,000 sets of transactions this math problem we will calculate ah, don’t I say what supply and demand relations in 2021 not only digested 2020 inventory, but also 2021 goods into the market, also sold out.– Do you think Shanghai property market will farts?– Do you think the Shanghai property market will end up?– Do you think Shanghai property market will enter the winter after the low price of three?Fact is, rely on rob all not necessarily buy ~ Shanghai property market, forecast a ball!Shanghai is the second largest economic and financial center in China with a GDP of 4 trillion yuan. The interest rate of the first set is 4.95%, and that of the second set is 5.65%. The Oriental Paris, the magic capital of Shanghai, enters 2022 with zero inventory.There is a song called “Flying all the way”, is the best description ah.Then guangzhou and Shenzhen.I have analyzed these two cities separately before, here is a brief talk!Guangzhou property market characteristics: high supply, high to change, high inventory.In 2021, Guangzhou became the king of the Greater Bay Area, with 115,000 transactions.However, the average inventory of each district is about 10 months, and nansha, Panyu and Zengcheng have reached 14.7 months.Predict “marry elder brother” will not rise posture, just need customers can pick to see, choose to buy.Among the four first-tier cities, Shenzhen suffered the most.– Real estate tax pilot city, there must be Shenzhen — second-hand housing price limit transaction volume halved, 10% to 15% has become a fact — new housing inventory reached a record high.To be sure, the interest rate on home purchases also fell to 4.9%.But the market a little hard signs are not, still maintain the downward trend since the palace.Regarding Shenzhen, I suggest waiting until the end of the first quarter to see the relevant data.Step02. Suzhou, the second-tier city, deserves our attention.– The interest rate is lowered from the highest 6.3% to 4.95% — the lowest second-hand housing loans to 4.65%, the interest rate is the lowest in nearly five years, the information is complete and the fastest 3 days can be lent.Now, the property market in Suzhou is heating up obviously. By the end of January 2022, 5,464 new houses have been sold, and 3,572 second-hand houses have been sold, which has exceeded the average performance of each month in 2021.From friends sent to see the video, wearing cotton-padded jacket, down jacket, in the sales office crowded.What a boom!Wuzhong, Wujiang, Gusu, xiangcheng and other areas of the real estate, preferential efforts are becoming smaller and smaller, like suzhou yue Fu and yue Four Seasons Huating, not only preferential cancellation and grab plate signs.Suzhou friends, suggested as early as possible to get on the bus, late is really over.Suzhou fierce, in industrial economy ~ — Jiangsu’s GDP is equivalent to the world’s 14th largest economy — Suzhou with 2271834 billion ranked the first in Jiangsu Province — Suzhou GDP growth rate maintained 8.7% high-speed growth.The average growth rate of Suzhou in recent years is 6.6%, the first king of jiangsu province.Suzhou dimensions in the industry, has been hailed as a “world factory” – two trillions of equipment manufacture and electronic information industry, a new generation of information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, four leading industry output value of artificial intelligence, has strong industry reached 871.8 billion yuan, is by no means the pursuit to suzhou has not only industrial base, also is the only permanent population more than thousands of cities in jiangsu province.– The population of Qipu increased by 2.29 million, and the total population was 10.7499 million. Both the increment and growth rate of population ranked first in Jiangsu Province.Suzhou is expected to appear Indian Summer is inevitable, the first half of the fire is not rare ah.Not far from Nanjing, the market is also warming, but because last year overdrawn part of the purchasing power, “married brother” short-term rise posture is impossible.Nanjing in Jiangsu, the economy and status has been very awkward.The biggest problem is population: nanjing’s population has been stuck at around 8.5 million for more than five years.It is recommended to continue to wait and see for a while, at least to see the first quarter.Although hangzhou because of the epidemic, the market is not strong, but, with the heat of the Asian Games in September, Indian Summer is inevitable, especially a new house.It’s only right to stop fighting and be ready to get on.Look at Wuhan.Wuhan Optical Valley, Hankou and other places are good, rising posture is obvious, other areas also have discount sales promotion, cold and hot opposition of the differentiated market.Wuhan’s biggest bright spot is ~ — the annual GDP exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan, with an increase of more than 12 percent compared to the same period last year, which is undoubtedly NO.1 in the central region — the latest economic growth forecast for 2022, wuhan’s 7.5 percent is also the highest among the top 15 cities.As long as there are no surprises, Wuhan is worth a long-term meal ticket.Among the cities of the six central provinces, Wuhan has the most solid economy and talents.– The advantages of universities and talents form a positive cycle with the industrial attraction, and the future can be expected — The return population of the province, Wuhan attracted more than 60% of the real estate in the winter of 2021, the annual transaction of more than 200,000 new houses, this is not luck.Suggestions want to get on the car, can rise at any time, even if the short-term did not see the “rise posture” of the eldest brother, but, asset preservation and expected growth is visible to the naked eye.Other key second-tier cities, chengdu market must be better than Chongqing, although Chongqing has picked up, but chongqing real estate tax and high inventory are upward slope resistance.And, the resistance is huge ~ Zhengzhou, Hefei, Taiyuan, Nanchang have not seen the “rise posture”, as for Xi ‘an, has not formed an industrial and talent advantage, the early soaring market has overdrawn small.Suggestions to continue to wait and see, cautious into the game from the region, the Yangtze River Delta up, the Pearl River Delta down, dragon neck Beijing maverick ~Step03.Important things say three times read today’s article, certainly someone said “you this is selling anxiety”, advocate the property market.Actually, there’s no need to spray me.I asked, “If you have 5 million in your hand, there is a quota, do you buy a house?”I asked “before I accurately forecast the RRR rate cut, the housing market, you make money, did I share?”I know you’re interested in the business cycle, and I’ll talk about it later.But I don’t think there’s any need to worry. This is the trend.Instead of worrying, hibernate, read more, run more, recharge more.It is more meaningful to improve yourself than to worry about the unknown future.In 2022, come on, partners!Source: Mingzhi Real Estate